An interval type-2 fuzzy MARCOS modelling to assess performance effectiveness of survival craft on cargo ship

Abstract

Emergency evacuation in maritime transportation is a critical concern, particularly with the expanding public marine transportation sector and significant losses from maritime disasters. This study aims to improve the decision-making process for selecting appropriate survival crafts on cargo ships using an Interval Type-2 Fuzzy MARCOS (IT2F-MARCOS) model. The proposed methodology addresses the inherent uncertainties and manages subjectivities in emergency scenarios, providing a robust framework for optimizing survival craft selection. The IT2F-MARCOS methodology integrates Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets (IT2FSs) to manage the ambiguity in qualitative assessments. IT2FSs offer a more accurate representation of vagueness and are used in various multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems due to their simplicity and robustness. The MARCOS method, which defines the relationship between alternatives and ideal/negative-ideal solutions, is enhanced with IT2FSs to handle subjective evaluations effectively. The IT2F-MARCOS model involves constructing an IT2F decision-making matrix, defining ideal and anti-ideal solutions, normalizing the IT2F matrix, and calculating weighted IT2F matrices. The utility degrees of alternatives are computed and defuzzified to obtain a crisp ranking of hazards. A panel of maritime experts provided insights through linguistic evaluations, allowing for the prioritization of hazards associated with survival craft performance on cargo ships. The study demonstrates that high-risk scenarios, such as driving vehicles at excessive speeds, are the most critical hazards. The IT2F-MARCOS model effectively identifies and ranks these hazards, offering a comprehensive tool for maritime emergency management and contributing to improved safety and efficiency in maritime operations.