To quit or not to quit? estimating the causal effects of Türkiye’s indoor smoking ban on the intentions to quit smoking

Abstract

Background: Smoking bans aim to reduce tobacco use, but their long-term effectiveness remains uncertain. This study investigates short- and long-term causal effects of Türkiye’s indoor smoking ban policy on the intentions to quit smoking among adults. Methods: Using three waves of data (2008, 2012, and 2016) from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS), we analyse the changes in intentions to quit smoking before and after the implementation of indoor smoking ban policy in July 2009. The analysis includes data from 2008 as the pre-policy period, 2012 as the short post-policy period, and 2016 as a long post-policy period, to observe both initial and sustained effects. Results: Results indicate a modest positive effect shortly after the ban’s implementation, with a 2% increase in the log odds of intention to quit smoking in 2012 among the individuals exposed to the ban. However, by 2016, the effect appears to vanish, with a 11% decrease in the log odds of intention to quit smoking among those exposed to the ban over a prolonged period. Conclusions: Overall, the study suggests that while the smoking ban initially encouraged quitting intentions, its effect did not sustain over time, emphasizing the need for the controls of society compliance and of policy implementations.