Modeling of current and future distributions of Camellia sinensis in Türkiye under climate change

Abstract

The tea plant (Camellia sinensis) that is cultivated in Türkiye is mainly grown in the eastern Black Sea region and is a significant crop for the Turkish economy. Climate change can have significant effects on the tea plant, including changes in its growth, physiology, and distribution. Here, we aimed to predict the current and future distribution patterns of the tea plant under four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios using ecological niche modeling in Türkiye. It was used 541 occurrence data for the tea plant in five provinces and nine bioclimatic variables were used in the modeling. The model produced an excellent simulation result with an AUC of 0.989. Our results showed that when compared with the current climate according to both four different scenarios and three different periods, it is predicted that the available suitable habitats will decrease and even excellent habitats will disappear, especially in the 2081–2100 time frame and SSP5-8.5 scenario. In the change analysis, it was determined that the tea plant will experience losses but there will be gains, and these gains show that it is predicted that the distribution range of tea will expand towards Rize and Artvin provinces. The findings obtained constitute a useful scientific foresight for the measures to be taken to increase the effectiveness of the conservation, management, and cultivation of the tea plant.