Predicting the spatial distribution of Turkish hornworts (Anthocerotophyta) under changing climatic conditions

Abstract

Climate change is a phenomenon that can affect all living organisms. To see its effect, many methods and techniques have been improved recently. Species distribution modelling (SDM) is the most popular technique for this. Here, the distribution of hornworts (Anthoceros caucasicus, Anthoceros punctatus, Phaeoceros laevis and Phymatoceros bulbiculosus), which are a group of non-vascular land plants native to Türkiye, was studied under changing climate using SDM. Three global climate models (GCMs) (CMCC-ESM2, HadGEM3-GC31-LL and MIROC6), two scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and 5-8.5) and four time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100) were considered. A total of 89 occurrence records of the hornwort species A. caucasicus, A. punctatus and P. laevis were considered for SDM. The potential distribution of P. bulbiculosus could not be modelled due to a lack of sufficient coordinates. Although the patterns between current and future distributions did not change significantly, there were notable differences in the distribution of modelled species in the SSP 5–8.5 scenario. In particular, the MIROC6 model showed an anomalous pattern for A. punctatus in the SSP 5–8.5 scenario. The SDMs indicate that the model will be a valuable resource for the conservation of these species at local and regional levels throughout Türkiye.