Present and future habitat shifts of the most important commercial fish species in the Black Sea under climate change

Abstract

The Black Sea is unique due to its semi-enclosed area and anoxic layer. However, changes in ecosystem conditions due to climate change in recent years threaten the viability of fish populations. This study focuses on estimating the future distribution and habitat losses of commercial fish species in the Black Sea under climate change. The results reveal that the decline in suitable habitats for all species is reaches considerable levels in the 2030–2040 and 2090–2100 projections of both scenarios (SSP1–1.9 and SSP5–8.5). The future of the Black Sea ecosystem is under the threat of climate change. Countries and unions bordering the Black Sea should develop and implement a common management plan to control anthropogenic effects through international cooperation.