Estimation of the monthly based hourly wind speed characteristics and the generated power characteristics for developing bidding strategies in an actual wind farm: a case study

Abstract

This manuscript proposes a new approach for the estimation of the monthly based hourly wind speed characteristics and the generated power characteristics in an actual wind farm. the proposed approach uses the probability density function for the long-term hourly wind speed data and this function was applied to the data for a wind farm constructed in the Balikesir province, Turkey. Daily, monthly and annual average wind turbine capacity factors were calculated using the new approach and it was proposed to provide the manufacturing authorities with the results prior to the construction of a wind farm. Following the construction of the wind farm, the results of the analysis were compared with the actual operating data on the wind farm in terms of power production capacity. the similarity of the results of the simulated analysis and the actual data, which were only 3.9 % off, was the motivation for publishing the present results.. We developed new software for determining the monthly based hourly wind speed distribution to predict the hourly average electricity production. Monthly based hourly power production was determined using the new approach to distribute the daily total electricity production forecast.