Circular behavior of oil consumption and the impact of oil prices with the Fourier approach

Abstract

In the changing world, oil continues to be important in energy production. Using monthly data from 1965 to 2022, the permanency of oil consumption fluctuations was investigated. Fourier-based Granger causality tests were used to examine cause-and-effect relationships between variables. Long-term relationships were estimated using Fourier-based Engle Granger cointegration tests. Unlike previous research, this study considers the long and short-term effects of countries that consume the most and least oil, as well as on a global scale, from different perspectives, examining oil price fluctuations together, and estimating these analyzes using the Fourier approach. Oil consumption fluctuations appear temporary in New Zealand and Luxembourg but permanent in all other countries. Oil consumption and prices share a causal relationship in the US, Japan, New Zealand, and Luxembourg, but no relationship elsewhere. A long-term relationship exists between oil consumption and prices in the US, India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, and Estonia. In other countries, no long-term relationship is found between these two variables. Error correction model estimation shows only the equation for Japan can be interpreted based on statistical significance. A one-unit deviation between oil consumption and prices can reach equilibrium in 20 months.