Sugar-sweetened beverage tax intensification, beverage affordability, and food-security safeguards: global evidence from 2022–2024

Abstract

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes aim to discourage unhealthy consumption, but their implications for broader food affordability also need monitoring. We examine whether changes in SSB excise-tax shares between 2022 and 2024 were associated with beverage affordability, healthy-diet affordability, and food insecurity. The analysis links WHO beverage-tax data with FAO food-system indicators and World Bank controls. First-difference models include 83–113 countries, depending on the outcome, with adjustment for multiple testing. A one-percentage-point increase in excise share was associated with a 0.0023-log-point change in SSB income burden (95% confidence interval −0.0349 to 0.0395). This estimate is small and imprecise. The PPP-price association depends on an anomalous source record, while the three food-system outcomes show no statistically precise associations after multiplicity adjustment. Because food insecurity is measured over overlapping three-year windows, it serves as a contextual indicator. The findings establish neither that tax intensification is ineffective nor that adverse food-system effects are absent. They support joint monitoring of beverage affordability and food access and identify a need for longer panels and household-level evidence.