Energy security, institutional quality, and geopolitical risks: evidence from türkiye and sub-saharan africa countries

Abstract

This study examines the effects of energy security, institutional quality, and geopolitical risks on oil price uncertainty in the context of Türkiye and Sub-Saharan African countries. The literature emphasises that energy security is critical for sustainable economic growth and is directly affected by geopolitical tensions and weak institutional structures. Empirical findings show that energy security and geopolitical risks increase oil price uncertainty, inflation fuels uncertainty, and consumption increases play a mitigating role. Furthermore, political stability is a strong determinant of volatility. Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis show a negative relationship between energy security and oil price uncertainty, and a positive relationship between energy security and geopolitical risks. The results reveal that strengthening institutional capacity, diversifying energy sources, and enhancing international cooperation are critical for energy security and macroeconomic stability.