Crisis-driven cyber risk: Evaluating the cybercrime landscape in the face of pandemic uncertainty

Abstract

Pandemic-driven uncertainty has been associated with a sharp rise in cybercrime, with opportunistic hackers exploiting new vulnerabilities in remote work environments and digital platforms. The increase underscores the need to implement resilient cybersecurity frameworks to ensure data protection and sustain digital trust. The present investigation analyzes the asymmetric association between pandemic uncertainty and cybercrime across the 10 leading economies having the highest cybercrime rates (USA, China, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Russia, France, Spain, and Nigeria). In contrast to previous investigations that predominantly employed panel data methodologies and thus disregarded the specific attributes of individual nations, this research uses the innovative Quantile-on-Quantile instrument. It assists in examining the relationships between variables in each distinct country. Consequently, this research provides an in-depth global perspective, offering detailed insights into the distinctive aspects of each nation. The findings disclose a strong positive relationship between pandemic uncertainty and cybercrime, particularly in China, Russia, Nigeria, Brazil, and the USA at higher quantiles of pandemic uncertainty, while in India, Germany, and France, the relationship is more pronounced at higher quantiles of cybercrime. Moreover, the findings confirm asymmetries and variations across different quantiles among the sample countries. The results accentuate the importance of policymakers undertaking comprehensive estimations and developing robust measures to manage deviations in both variables.