Assessing the effects of factors playing a role in the red line crisis process on foreign policy output: the obama administration example

Abstract

The President of the United States, Barack Obama, announced in August 2012 that the utilization of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime was redline for US military intervention in Syria. However, a year after, the regime used the chemical weapons against civilians. Although such an act was described as redline for military intervention, the Obama administration preferred to solve such an issue through diplomacy with Russia. This article, attempts to explain factors caused such a foreign policy outcome. It applied an explaining-outcome process-tracing to happenings between 21 August 2012 and 14 September 2013. The article argues that parameters affecting the foreign policy choices of Obama, main and secondary actors in the US foreign policymaking and implementation process and the choice of Bureaucratic Policy Model were main factors causing such a foreign policy outcome. By applying Beach and Pedersen's (2019) explaining outcome process-tracing method and conceptualizing the happenings as a "Redline Crisis", this article aims to contribute to the debates in the Turkish literature over the US foreign policy, and specifically the US foreign policy in Syria during the Obama administration. Findings indicate that a president can use diplomatic channels with his/her international rivals (like Russia) in the context of solving a significant crisis which provides an opportunity for saving his/her reputation against political opponents in the internal politics.