Application of fuzzy Bayesian approach on bankruptcy causes for container liner industry

Abstract

The crucial role of the container liner industry in international trade suggests that understanding why container liner firms go bankrupt is vital to the stability, sustainability, and health of container liner transportation. For prevention of the bankruptcies, it is important to reveal the leading causes. Taken the container liner industry into consideration, this paper constructs a novel model of the causal mechanism of bankruptcy from a holistic perspective. Probabilistic relationships between failure causes are revealed qualitatively and quantitatively utilizing a Fuzzy Bayesian Network approach. Following that scenario, sensitivity and validation analyses are carried out to increase the accuracy of findings. Results of the research indicate that when external and internal causes exist together then the probability of bankruptcy occurrence appears with the highest percentage. This supports the research body suggesting that an integrated approach is a more powerful approach in explaining the causes of the bankruptcy than internal or external causes do separately. It is also observed that compared to the external factors, internal causes are found to more contribute to a bankruptcy of a container liner firm. Policy makers and stakeholders in the container liner transportation can utilize the results of this paper in the prevention of firm bankruptcy.